17.05.23 | 6 mins

Future scenarios in the financial sphere (III)

How did we do it?
By Nacho Rodríguez

We have used the following techniques in our approach: Futures Triangle (Figure 1) in order to capture, if possible, a potential representative image of the future with the accelerators and barriers that may be associated with it, we have worked with the futures triangle proposed by Sohail Inayatullah. It is a first touchdown that allows us to capture first impressions of the images that are shaping the effort and expectations in the financial sphere. Emerging Factors; 360º Scan (PEST) (Figure 2) and Futures Wheel (Figure 3). In order to understand the future emerging factors that will operate in the financial sector, there is a guided analysis of PEST vectors (Politics, Economy, Social and technology), projected in the short term, midterm and long term.


Figure 1: Futures Triangle, own elaboration


Figure 2: 360º Scan (PEST), own elaboration


Figura 3: Futures Wheel - Leaving 1st place, own elaboration

After implementing a 360º scan, we have identified 3 emerging factors that shape our Futures Wheel:

  • Leaving 1st place (Figure 3): Actually Europe and Spain might not be the 1st position to leave, but 2nd or 4th, maybe 5th. In any case, what’s relevant is the awareness of the chances of recovering from a decadent circumstance where initiative and vision are gradually diminished. A loss caused by the economic and political weight, transferred from the West to the East, which is a trend already pointed out; however, beyond the cryptic title, the work focuses on the eventual implications a backstep would exert on the standard of living, derived from an absence of competitiveness and opportunities in Europe and/or Spain.

  • Time for a reset (Figure 4): In reference to the editorial publication of the Financial Times in September 2019, which was aligned with the American Business Roundtable that argued against the undisputed Friedman doctrine. It is time to reset for many reasons, which is why we have analysed the different possible impacts of this factor related fundamentally to economic life and its correlation with society.


Figura 4: Futures Wheel - Time for a reset, own elaboration

  • Impact and the subsequent downfall of the digital utopia (Figure 5): The digital dream was born in the heat of the Arpanet project and the American counterculture in the 70’s. Implicit in its genesis is a certain libertarian and rebellious air that welcomes a new world with freedom and less trade, as the Cluetrain manifesto attests. However, these expectations have not only been frustrated but have given rise to what can be considered as its nemesis. The focus, however, is on the subsequent disenchantment.


Figura 5: Futures Wheel - Downfall of the digital utopia, own elaboration


Future scenarios in the financial sphere (II)

Potential threats.